“OUR TROUBLE IS THE ABSENCE OF HEAVY WEAPONS TO CONFRONT THE RUSSIAN ARMY” UNDERLINES UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR TO IRAN

Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has entered its fifth month, while in this war, thousands of people have been killed, billions of dollars of military equipment have been destroyed, and numerous cities are subjected to the relentless Russian bombardment. Meanwhile, the predictions about the end of the war differ. While Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, warns that the war can last for several years, some intelligence agencies have reported that by sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, Russia’s military superiority will end in the coming months. 

AVA Diplomatic’s Exclusive Interview with Sergei Burdyliak, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Iran

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the third country in terms of nuclear weapons stockpiles, but in 1994 it submitted its nuclear weapons. Did Ukraine make a big mistake in choosing nuclear disarmament? Could nuclear weapon prevent Russia from invading Ukraine?

 If we look at this issue that occurred in 1994, we need to comprehensively assess the international situation. Back then, no one in the world could imagine that instead of one big country, there would be several small countries with nuclear potentials.

Also in that time, I mean in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, one of the preconditions for the independence of the countries including Ukraine was the disarmament of the nuclear weapons to Russia which had declared itself a replacement for the former Soviet Union.

I fully remember, you may also remember that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the people of the newly independent countries felt blissful and everyone thought this was the end of history and the beginning of a new life. Even Francis Fukuyama wrote a book entitled “The End of History and the Last Man”.

At that time, nobody could have envisaged that a country or a political person would threaten the other side with nuclear weapons.

Considering the new situation and the challenges that the people, political circles and president of Ukraine were facing at that time, both psychologically and logically, they could not deal with those challenges well and cope with them. The consequence of those challenges was the signing of Budapest Memorandum.

I want to talk about the flaws the happened in signing that memorandum. If we review the text of this document, we see that in place of concluding an agreement by an international organization, only a statement was issued which does not have the necessary guarantee. As an example, in that memorandum, the signatories simply state we respect each other’s territorial integrity and there is no guarantee in that.

That is why Mr. Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, is talking about guarantees that must be included in new agreements. The guarantees that the Ukrainian president is now talking about must have been properly recorded in Budapest Memorandum when we possessed nuclear weapon, and yes, it was our mistake.

Assuming Ukraine has a nuclear bomb now; does Ukraine have the required equipment to launch it with a fighter or a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, so that it can utilize the nuclear bomb as a deterrent?

Having a nuclear weapon, to some extent, could have been a deterrent against Russian aggression. However, I want to make another point.

I can compare the attitude of Russia towards Ukraine with the relationship between Iran and Israel, yet the difference is that neither Israel nor Islamic Republic of Iran pronounces that the other side should be wiped off the world map. But Russians in their relations with Ukraine say that Ukraine as a nation must be removed from the world scene and there should be no Ukrainian language and it should be destroyed.

Even a few days ago at 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, on one of the monitors, Russians showed a picture of the split Ukraine, based on which Ukraine was separated into eight parts and it was specified that each part should be added to what country.

Referring to your question, I should say that to confront the enemy and to create a deterrent system, just having a nuclear bomb is not enough. There must be a comprehensive system for deterrence and efficiency of one country’s defense system against another. In point of fact, fourth generation equipment and technologies should complement each another in pursuance of one country’s deterrent system effective against another.

Let’s suppose a country has strategic nuclear weapons and intends to make use of them. According to international law and in accordance with the principle of reciprocal destruction, if a country uses nuclear weapon, the other side will counter. Therefor this is also pointless because the first party that uses nuclear weapons will be the next victim, as a nuclear bomb will be thrown at it.

If we look at tactical nuclear weapons, we see that the weapons with less power are utilized. For instance, they are applied to confront a group of the opposing forces or to destroy facilities and command centers. The key point here is that if one side uses these kinds of weapons, then their forces will not be able to enter that area as a result of contamination. So in this case, they do not even get to their tactical goal.

If we inspect the experience of the latest wars we witnessed, such as the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, we understand that it is better to have a thousand drones rather than a nuclear bomb because it is more effective and efficient.

In case of prolonged war, is it possible for Russia to use strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

At the present time, Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons. I do not know what will happen next. The Ukrainian forces may reach Crimean Peninsula. In that case the probability of using nuclear weapons will go up. Most political and military analysts around the word also believe that in the current situation, the probability of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine is not high.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, most western politician declared they would not approve Ukraine as a member of NATO. In this circumstance, if NATO could not predict a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, this would be a severe intelligence deficiency of that organization. And if NATO predicted the case and did not take any measures, it means that it has victimized Ukraine. What is your analysis of this theory?

Regarding the deficiency of the intelligent agencies, I should say that it is not true, for the reason that from September 2021, it was obvious to us and different organizations around the world that this invasion would start.

If you regard the public speeches of Mr. Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, you can see in his speeches since October 2021, he called on the western countries to provide heavy weapons for Ukraine. 

Until a few months before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some countries could not believe that Ukraine would be able to withstand and resist well against Russian forces. They did not believe in Ukraine’s defense capabilities because they looked at the experience in 2014 and 2015 when Russia could easily occupy the Crimean Peninsula. They also could easily seize Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Most political and military analysts in most countries made a mistake in preparing their analytical reports because for their analyses, they merely focused on the number of Russian armed forces near the Ukrainian borders.

In military science it has been proved that in an offensive operation, the ratio of attacking forces to defending forces must be three to one. They calculated and found out that there was not such a balance between the offensive side and the defensive side. After Russia launched its invasion from six directions, global military and political analysts realized this was insane.

Perhaps what I am saying is not a new subject for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran since they are aware of the fact that in defensive operation, the industrial capacities of the whole country must be considered both militarily and defensively.

If we look at the beginning of the war, we see that the Russian military units that entered Ukraine were far away from our border. For example, there were units from the city of Saratov in Russia. Map of the Ukrainian-Russian border shows this long distance. Or the troops that came from the Russian city of Pskov to the city of Hostomel near Kyiv. There is also a great distance between these two cities. There were also units from the Far East of Russia and the cities of Ussuriysk and Vladivostok.

If it is being said now that the commanders-in-chief of the Russian forces made a mistake and did not calculate well, this not correct, and it can be compared to the conversations that two sellers make in the Grand Bazzar of Tehran claiming that such a decision was right or wrong. If we look at the case from a military or war perspective, we see that the Russian plan was well prepared and they did right.

Of course, they made a few mistakes. The first mistake was that they did not take into account the military readiness of Ukrainian soldiers and the level of training of the middle and lower ranks of Ukrainian officers. Since 2013, during these eight years, our experience has increased a lot and we have received more military training. Another mistake of Russia was that they were waging a classic twentieth-century war against Ukraine.

There are different levels in the army. For example, a low-level officer cannot take an immediate action without the permit of his higher levels officers. In the Ukrainian army and based on the experience we have gained over the past years, we have created a flexible system which its foundation is like an insecticide network. That is, on the battlefield, any of the higher or lower ranked commanders can take an immediate action against the enemy.

I draw your attention to another matter. Carl von Clausewitz who lived in the nineteenth century, wrote his book on the principles of war about two hundred years ago. Even now, all the armies of the world study that book. In his book, he wrote that the victory on the battlefield is determined by nation who shed their blood in defense of their homeland. This matter was underestimated by Russian and European analysts and their assessment went wrong. Right now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are one of the strongest armies across Europe. I remark this with full confidence.

In the battle of Kyiv, the Russians used the tactics of General Heinz Guderian that belonged to the Nazi army eighty years ago. In World War II, General Guderian was soon able to capture the center of Kyiv with a group of tanks. However, the recent Russian military attack on Kyiv was unsuccessful and they soon withdrew. After the Russians realized that Guderian’s tactics were ineffective and do not lead them to their goals, now in eastern Ukraine, they are using the tactics of another German general, Erich von Manstein, who besieged the city of Sevastopol in 1942.

In reference to that tactics, cities must be devastated the way that they become uninhabitable. This was the case in Aleppo in Syria, in Grozny in Chechnya and also in the cities of Mariupol and Sieverodonetsk. In fact, Russia is using this tactic.

Due to their superiority in artillery and rocket launcher systems, they target a lot of facilities in our cities and destroy the living place of the civilians.

This situation will go on unless we can balance against the Russian army. When I talk about weapons, I do not just mean the quantity of the heavy weapons, but the quality of weapon we need to be able to stand against Russia.

It totally surprised military experts when Ukrainian Neptune Missile hit Russian Cruiser Moskva. What is your opinion on this?

As you noticed, a few days ago, we also destroyed oil platforms in the Black Sea using the weapons donated to Ukraine. Now the situation in the Black Sea is gradually changing.

Why do Western countries provide military support to Ukraine in a way that Ukraine does not surrender in the war but at the same time does not have the upper hand?

World politics is an issue with its own aspects and each country pursues its own goals. In this regard, western countries are also seeking to achieve their purposes.

For example, everyone knows that China is standing against the West and the energy and mineral resources that come to China from Russia quite matters for this country. A number of countries want China to be weakened, and one way to weaken China is to weaken Russia so that it cannot send support resources to China.

At the moment, the main objective of Ukraine is to promptly end this war with the preservation of territorial integrity. The other goals that Ukraine has in mind are the same as the goals that some other countries have now. This means Russia becomes so weak that it will not be able to repeat a new attack on its neighbors after a while.

You should also put it into your consideration that Ukraine was not and still is not a member of NATO. As a result, our soldiers and officers should receive training to use NATO’s new weapons. Military training is time consuming.

Meanwhile, NATO member states that had Soviet-era weapons such as tanks, they send them to Ukraine but this military equipment is not adequate.

Another issue I would like to point out is that Western countries or the countries within the European Union have different views; these views are not homogeneous. For example, countries such as the United Kingdom, Poland, or the Baltic states provide us with military, financial and humanitarian support, but some of other EU countries are not willing to help us like that as they are more in pursuit of their political goals. Accordingly, at the beginning of the war we were mostly given light weapons like Stingers, Javelins, anti-tanks, anti-helicopters and           UAVs. Now the Western countries have started to provide us with heavy weapons.

Given the traditional Russian-Israeli relationship, how do you examine Tel Aviv’s role in balancing its relations with Russia and Ukraine during this war?

Relations between Ukraine and Israel are still friendly. If I want to analyze this issue in more depth, I should tell you that in Ukraine we are a little upset about Israel’s position in this war and we are a little disappointed with them because they do not take principled positions on this war.

We expect them to oppose the aggression, to oppose killing people and children. When they only say we are against the war, it means they have not said anything.

Of course, it should be noted that there is an organization in Israel that studies the voting process at the United Nations. UN Watch which is an independent institution in Israel reviews which countries and how many times have voted against Israel. In the reports of this institution, it has been written that in the last seven years, from 2015 to 2022, Ukraine was a country that had voted against Israel 95 times within the framework of the United Nations.

I know that some Iranian politicians compare the situation in Ukraine with the situation in Palestine. They say that the international community has obsessively focused on the situation in Ukraine, and this causes the issue of Palestine to be ignored. They say why the violation of human rights in Ukraine is talked about but not the same in Palestine. Given the fact that in the last seven years, Ukraine has voted 95 times against Israeli positions at the United Nations, these people should say at least one time that Russia is an aggressor.

If we look at the developments of 1945 after the end of World War II, we see that the two occupying countries were supposed to withdraw their armies and military troops from Iran. On one hand, Britain was the occupier of Iran, and on the other hand, the Soviet Union. Britain withdrew its forces from Iran but Stalin as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union decided not to withdraw his forces from Iran.

In December 1945, in northern Iran, “Azerbaijan People’s Government” declared independence and also in January 1946, in northwestern Iran, “Republic of Kurdistan/ Republic of Mahabad” declared independence. No country except the Soviet Union recognized these two self-proclaimed republics. The same story happed in Donetsk and Luhansk. You see that how much the incidents look alike. This is the same scenario.

With regard to what I just told you, I would like to advise those politicians who compare Palestine and Ukraine to study their own history, so that they may find various similarities in Russian history with Ukraine and with Iran.

In some media outlets, it has been said as Mr. Zelenskyy is Jewish, the Israeli government supports and protects him and has repeatedly prevented his assassination. Is it true?

This is not true. Throughout the history of Ukraine, we have never assumed that we are better or worse that Jews, Muslims, Tatars, or Russians. For that reason, the representatives of different races in Ukraine live peacefully together without any problems. A good example is Ms. Emine Dzhaparova, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, who is Tatar and Muslim. She easily goes to the mosque and does her work. I have not seen, for example, Muslims claim that they carry out security operations to save her life.

I do not support conspiratorial policies. If we look at the former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, we see that at first people paid a lot of attention to his Ukrainianness. However, in the last presidential election, people chose Zelenskyy not because he was a Jew but the people wanted to take a different path. As a president, he could be of any race.

How many foreign troops have been killed inside Ukraine? Do you have any statistics?

I do not have such statistics and if I knew, I would not say that. These figures may be published after the war.

Your Excellency wrote letters to President Raisi as well as Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian. What topics did you mention in these letters and did you receive an answer?

I wrote those letters addressed to Mr. Raisi and Mr. Amir-Abdollahian and wanted to know their views on the situation in Ukraine, but unfortunately I did not receive any response.

The Iranian regime says it is neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war, but on the other hand has extensive cooperation with Russia, attends their economic and political conferences, and demonstrates its friendship with Russia.

What is the level of cooperation and interaction of Iran with Ukraine? During the war, no humanitarian aid was sent to Ukraine from Iran. Iran, for instance, can host ten thousand Ukrainian children for medical treatment as they are suffering from mental problems since the outset of the war. It could even be a symbolic gesture but Iran has done nothing so far.

Some people tell me that throughout the eight-year imposed war of Iraq against Iran, what aid Ukraine offered to Iran? I must first say that Ukraine was not an independence state then. If you recall, following the Bam earthquake in Iran, Ukraine sent several planes with humanitarian aid to Iran.

The other day I was in the Polish Embassy. A ceremony was held there to mark the 80th anniversary of Iran’s reception of Polish refugees. In fact, after eighty years, Iran’s reception of the Polish refugees is significant and contributes to the development of bilateral cooperation between Poland and Iran.

Imagine that now Iran accepts ten to twenty thousand Ukrainian kids for medical treatment. In future after thirty or fifty years, Ukrainians will talk about Iran’s humanitarian approach and will remember that Iran helped us back then. Such a thing is not arms assistance and does not contradict Iran’s neutrality.

Currently from the Middle East and Central Asia, from countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, humanitarian aid such as food and medicine is being sent to Ukraine but Iran has not helped us at all.

Before the war, Ukraine was not in the spotlight and was not considered an influential country but today even The Times says that Mr. Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, is one the most prominent political characters in the world and puts his picture on the cover of its magazine.

Have you managed to meet Mr. Amir-Abdollahian during Russia-Ukraine war?

I asked for a visit several times, but it was not possible. I don’t know if Mr. Amir Abdollahian has met with the Russian ambassador or not. If he has not, then this expresses his neutrality, but if he has met with the Russian ambassador, this does not signify neutrality anymore. One must act as he claims.

However, I must admit that the last telephone conversation between Ukrainian Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdullahiyan improved my mood and gave me more optimism about Iran’s readiness to take a constructive position that will contribute to the development of friendly relations with Ukraine.

As Mr. Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, visits Iran, why do we not see the visit of the Foreign Minister of Ukraine to Tehran?

I do not know. First, It should be asked from the Foreign Minister and then from his counterpart in Iran. To take the first step, I suggest that the president of Ukraine delivers a speech in the Parliament of Iran as he has had it in the parliament of different countries.

Now, due to the war in Ukraine, by the order of the president, ministers can go abroad only for three purposes. First, negotiations for military weapons, second, negotiations to attract investment, and third, participation in conferences held within the framework of international organizations. Apart from that, no minister, even the Minister of Foreign Affairs or the Minister of Health, has the right to travel abroad. In other words, I should refer to these three words; weapons, money, and sanctions.

So as to export Iran’s oil to Ukraine, are there any ongoing negotiations between the two countries?

It was for this reason that the Foreign Minister of Poland visited Iran. One of the topics of discussions between the sides was the matter of selling Iranian oil to Poland. This is over two or three years that I have requested to visit Iran’s Minister of Petroleum, but this meeting is not approved.

If the ambassador is not permitted to have this meeting, then what does it mean for the minister to visit Iran? I exemplify it; when two trade or commercial companies want to sign a contract, it is imperative for experts and lawyers to review the draft of the contract first. After agreeing on that, the heads of the companies sign it. I simply mean, if the ambassador is not allowed to meet with the Minister of Petroleum, then what is the point that our minister comes to Iran without the preliminary work?

There can be another reason for the visit of Ukrainian officials to Iran; that the government of Iran makes a decision to solve the case of the Ukrainian Flight PS752.

What decision should Iran make?

This is my personal viewpoint that, for example, the government of Iran declares readiness to sit at the negotiation table with the other five countries involved in that incident and increases the amount of compensation for the families of the victims.

Why should Iran increase the amount of compensation?

We make an offer. Iran can whether accept or deny it. We have written many notes to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, but have not received any response, a similar fate that happened to my letters to Mr. Raisi and Mr. Amir-Abdollahian and the Minister of Petroleum.

How has the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the world’s food security?

Our forecasts regarding the issue of exporting grain are not positive. I should note that before the war, we used to export our grain to Iran and its allied countries including Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

Lebanon used to buy up to 80 percent of its grain from Ukraine. Also the part of Turkey that exported grain to Syria, supplied 90 percent of it from Ukraine. Yemen also supplied 30, 35 percent of its grain from Ukraine. Many other countries in the world like African countries also bought grain from us.

Last year, the grain harvest in Ukraine was around 100 million tones, of which we sold and consumed about 80 million tones. There remained 20 million tones but the Ukrainian ports are blockaded by Russian warships. Given the fact that a vast number of our agricultural lands have been mined by the Russians or hit by rockets, for this year we will be able to have 60 to 65 million tons of harvesting.

I should also notify that, in the past years before the war, I approached the Iranian ministries and offered them to supply us fuel for agricultural equipment, and then we will pay back the cost of this fuel with grain.

If Iran had supplied us fuel for agricultural purposes, you would have been able to say that we have given you fuel and now give us grain in return.

Let me tell you that it is never late. It is mentioned in our Holy Book when Jesus Christ was crucified, there was a thief standing on his right hand and another thief on his left. One of them was ridiculing Jesus Christ, but the other one was saying if you are truly the Son of God, I will believe in you. Jesus Christ said it is never late to get to heaven.

Mr. Ambassador, You were the Consul General of Ukraine in Shanghai from 2009 to 2014. Thus, you are well familiar with the role of China in international developments. Can it be said that China benefited the most from Russian invasion of Ukraine? Can this war be a model for China to seize Taiwan?

There exists also the same opinion as you said among analytical circles claiming that what is happening in Ukraine due to the war is in favor of China. Given that China is a trading country and its economy is concentrated on trade with foreign countries and China’s position is very sensitive to the political developments across the world, I ponder that what is happening in Ukraine, directly affects the trade and business systems in China.

If we look at the China’s logistic routes like the New Silk Road, we see that this route is now blocked due to the war between Ukraine and Russia.

The third point I would like to draw you attention to is that China is a country that both imports and exports grain and foodstuffs. That is, it imports foodstuffs from a series of countries and sells it to third countries like African countries. Now, due to the developments in Ukraine, it is evident that the people of African countries will face a food crisis. On one hand a big wave of immigration from Africa to Europe will begin, and on the other hand, China will have to send or sell its grain to African countries. You know, money likes silence. It means money grows in tranquility.

Looking at the situation of Taiwan from a legal perspective and its relations with China, we see that except by fifteen countries, Taiwan is not recognized worldwide. Ukraine’s situation cannot be compared to Taiwan’s as Ukraine’s sovereignty is recognized by all countries of the world.

China’s policy has always sought for the peaceful annexation of Taiwan to China. We are currently witnessing the escalation of military conditions in the Taiwan Strait. What are its causes? May be, it is the result of the domestic problems that now the Chinese government and president Xi Jinping are facing with and there exist a political crisis.

Shall we see Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near future?

Most of the world’s political and military analysts believe that the state of the ties between China and Taiwan relies on the trend of the political developments inside China. If this crisis deteriorates, we cannot rule out China’s attack on Taiwan.

Now we see the Chinese government is very carefully studying the policies of sanctions against Russia. I mean the Russian money blocked in international banks. It is super tough for China to have a trillion dollars of its money blocked in banks, and this is a huge loss. On the other side, Taiwan is studying Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, has predicted the war between Russia and Ukraine will last for years. Do you have the same prediction?

This is a difficult question which I cannot answer easily. I assumed this war would end by the end of the running year, but now I do not know how long it will last, and it depends on heavy foreign weapons supplied to Ukraine.

Why has the advance of the Russian forces inside the territory of Ukraine increased in the last few days?

Their advance in eastern Ukraine is not that much. In regard with supporting the army and preparations of the troops, we do not have any difficulty. Our main trouble is the absence of heavy weapons to confront the Russian army.

This is now hard to predict the end of war and we need to wait. We have to gradually keep going to win and there is no other solution.

Until now, how many military forces of the two countries have been killed and how much military equipment has been destroyed?

(As published in July 2nd) In terms of casualties, 35870 Russians have been killed, and in terms of equipment, 1582 tanks, 3737 armored personnel vehicles, 800 artillery systems, 217 aircrafts, 186 helicopters, 653 UAV operational, and 15 boats/cutters have been destroyed. These statistics are published as a weekly report.

In the war between Russia and Ukraine, which country do you think has lost the most and which country has gained the most?

Well, the countries that lost the most are Ukraine on one side and Russia on the other. Regarding infrastructure destruction and economically, we have lost a lot. Russia has also lost a lot, especially in terms of casualties.

I cannot say which country has benefited the most because I do not know what country can take the most advantage of these regional political and military developments between Ukraine and Russia. I think we are now on the verge of a third war and on the verge of crucial changes.

There might start a new wave in the Middle East or the Central Asia as the situation there has not settled down yet. The regions of the Pacific Ocean may also witness a new crisis.